L1D48 (1.4) |
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L1T80 (23%): emissions (9%), carbon_tax (7%) L1T83 (10%): tax (10%) L1T4 (7%): reduce (7%), increase (6%), total (4%), reduction (4%) L1T82 (4%): gdp (12%), co2_emissions (10%), carbon_emissions (9%), carbon_emission (7%) L1T41 (3%): price (27%), prices (17%) L1T90 (3%): effects (19%) |
title | abstract |
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THE ECONOMIC-IMPACT OF SUBSIDY PHASE-OUT IN OIL EXPORTING DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES - A CASE-STUDY OF ALGERIA, IRAN AND NIGERIA (1995) 🗎🗎 | One of the crucial issues of energy markets in oil exporting developing countries is the high level of subsidies on petroleum products and the low efficiency in energy use. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of a subsidy phase out policy on the energy sector and oil revenues in three countries: Algeria, Iran and Nigeria. By using a standard econometric approach, we find that the effects of different deregulation policies are substantial. We also analyse the impact of a policy based on autonomous energy-efficiency improvement. Finally, a combination of both policies is elaborated and quantified. Our results show that a policy geared at more rational use of energy would permit these countries to save enough oil to meet future increases in demand while maintaining stable production capacity. Furthermore, such an energy policy could result in additional oil revenues which would enhance their economic development. |
Low-carbon transition in a coal-producing country: A labour market perspective (2020) 🗎🗎 | The decarbonisation of energy in a coal-producing country involves phasing out the coal sector and reducing employment in coal mining. Our case study of Poland reveals that in the past, half of the workers that left the mining sector failed to move to other sectors and left the labour market. This could be explained by the lower education levels of miners and lower wages in other sectors relative to mining. We use a mathematical model to demonstrate that if ex-miners fail to move to green or neutral sectors, decarbonisation involves a net loss of the labour force, regardless of the number of jobs created in the green sector. The loss of labour constitutes a macroeconomic cost that must be added to changes in energy system costs. The size of the cost does not depend on whether reduction of emissions is achieved by the substitution of coal with renewable energy sources or by an increase in energy efficiency. The size of the cost is largest when the reduction of emissions is achieved by replacing coal with imported gas. Finally, we demonstrate how costs related to the imperfect transition of labour could be taken into account in numerical general equilibrium models. |
Politics and petroleum: Unintended implications of global oil demand reduction policies (2016) 🗎🗎 | Environmental degradation and national energy security concerns are among the drivers of domestic and international policies directed towards reducing oil consumption. Often lost in these policy discussions are how such policies may affect world oil producing regions. Assuming a competitive market, a reservoir-specific world oil supply curve representing 2010 production and costs conditions is developed to specifically examine how reductions in world oil demand would affect oil producing regions and how changes in U.S. and world oil demand would affect U.S. dependence on foreign oil in a comparative static analysis. The supply curve is developed using a physical/cost simulator based on industry data. Because of the physical nature of oil reservoirs, countries would be affected differently by reductions in world oil demand. Many of the more impacted countries are relatively more politically unstable than countries with smaller effects. This unintended potential destabilization must be included in the discussion when considering policies to reduce world oil demand. In the absence of game changing technologies, discussion of the U.S. achieving self-sufficiency from demand side management appears to not be meaningful. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
The oil endgame: Strategies of oil exporters in a carbon-constrained world (2015) 🗎🗎 | There is mounting evidence that global oil demand will peak between 2020 and 2040, supported by rational economics (inter-fuel competition and efficiency gains) and environmental policies. The perspective of a peak in world oil demand poses a serious economic threat to petrostates whose GDP largely depends on oil export revenues. This article develops a repertoire of five possible strategies that oil-exporting countries can follow in a carbon-constrained world: quota agreements, price wars, efficiency, compensation, and economic diversification. The analysis suggests that the strategic behavior of oil exporters could yield important effects on climate policies, oil prices and related rents, the energy security of importers, and global geopolitics. The findings suggest that models of decarbonization and global energy security need to incorporate more explicitly the strategic behavior of oil exporters. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Following the debate on the implications of international trade for global climate policy, this paper introduces the topic of the economic benefits from trade obtained by exporting countries in relation to the emissions generated in the production of exports. In 2008, 24% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 20% of the employment around the world were linked to international trade. China "exported" 30% of emissions and hosted 37.5% of the jobs generated by trade worldwide. The European Union and the United States of America were the destination of 25% and 18.4% of the GHG emissions embodied in trade. The imports of these two regions contributed to the creation of 45% of the employment generated by international trade. This paper proposes the idea of including trade issues in international climate negotiations, taking into account not only the environmental burden generated by developed countries when displacing emissions to developing countries through their imports, but also the economic benefits of developing countries producing the goods exported to developed countries. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | |
The perverse fossil fuel subsidies in China-The scale and effects (2014) 🗎🗎 | To address the problem of climate change, G-20 government leaders committed to "rationalize and phase-out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage excessive consumption over the medium term", i.e., removing the perverse subsidies. Considering China's particular circumstances and the purposes of energy subsidies, the perverse fossil fuel subsidies in China mainly concentrated on industries, and gasoline, diesel and natural gas consumption, which are always regressive. Other subsidies, such as those for residential electricity consumption and agriculture, should be kept for the time being. Results indicate that China's perverse fossil fuel subsidies amounted to CNY 509.22 billion in 2008, equivalent to 61.2% of total fossil fuel subsidies and 1.69% of GDP in that year. In addition, reasonable subsidies will not affect energy conservation and emission reduction. Furthermore, CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is used to analyze the impacts of energy subsidy reforms. Our finding shows that removing perverse energy subsidies will result in a significant decline in energy demand and CO2 emissions, but will have negative impacts on the macro-economy. Therefore, supporting (or offsetting) policies, like carrying out other cost-benefit and sustainable programs with the revenues saved from subsidy reduction, are needed to alleviate the adverse impacts of removing perverse subsidies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
The actions of OPEC and Saudi Arabia are discussed in terms of their objectives and their technical and social constraints. It is concluded (1) that OPEC does not act as a cartel and (2) that Hotelling's rule is not an important feature of pricing or production. OPEC's (more specifically, Saudi Arabia's) ideal policy is to keep price moderate to try to assure a market for their high reserves over the long run. Such an action would require heavy investments in capacity, including in excess capacity, for times of interruption of supply from other countries as in the 1990s and for times of high demand as in the 2000s. The action may be inconsistent with other objectives and in any case may be too difficult to achieve. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. | |
International coal trade and restrictions on coal consumption (2012) 🗎🗎 | Coal consumption is a major source of CO2 emissions and other air pollutants and is therefore a focus of environmental policy. However, countries that restrict their coal consumption will likely expand their coal exports to foreign markets with fewer restrictions on consumption. The adjustment in international trade will mitigate the impact on coal industry employment but will also reverse some of the reduction in global emissions. This paper quantifies the impact of restrictions on coal consumption in the United States and several other large countries on global coal consumption, trade, and industry employment. The impact calculations are based on an econometric model of the international coal market. The parameters of the model are fitted to panel data on coal consumption and production in 53 countries. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
Moving to greener pastures? Multinationals and the pollution haven hypothesis (2003) 🗎🗎 | This paper presents evidence on whether multinationals are flocking to developing country "pollution havens". Although we find some evidence that foreign investors locate in sectors with high levels of air pollution, the evidence is weak at best. We then examine whether foreign firms pollute less than their peers. We find that foreign plants are significantly more energy efficient and use cleaner types of energy. We conclude with an analysis of U.S. outbound investment. Although the pattern of U.S. foreign investment is skewed towards industries with high costs of pollution abatement, the results are not robust across specifications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved. |
Jobs versus the environment: An industry-level perspective (2002) 🗎🗎 | The possibility that workers could he adversely affected by increasingly stringent environmental policies has led to claims of a "jobs versus the environment" trade-off by both business and labor leaders, The present research examines this claim at the industry level for four heavily polluting industries: pulp and paper mills, plastic manufacturers, petroleum refiners, and iron and steel mills. Combining a unique plant-level data set with industry-level demand information, we find that increased environmental spending generally does not cause a significant change in employment. Our average across all four industries is a net gain of 1.5 jobs per $1 million in additional environmental spending. with a standard error of 2.2 jobs-an economically and statistically insignificant effect. There are statistically significant and positive effects in two industries, but total number of affected jobs remains quite small. These small positive effects can be linked to labor-using factor shifts and relatively inelastic estimated demand. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science (USA). |
The impact of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the low-carbon transition (2019) 🗎🗎 | There is growing consensus on the fact that fossil fuel subsidies provided by governments in high-income countries represent a misalignment on emissions' reduction with the global climate agenda. In addition, a discussion emerged on the negative socio-economic and environmental externalities associated with fossil fuel subsidies. Nevertheless, pathways for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies in high income countries and their implications on the low-carbon transition have not yet been assessed. With the aim to narrow this knowledge gap, we extend the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent behavioral model to study the implications on sustainable development of the gradual phasing out of fossil fuels subsidies, whose revenues could be used by the government to subsidize energy investments in green capital (e.g. solar panels), either via fiscal policies or green bonds. We assess the effects on green growth, employment, credit and bonds market, as well as the distributive effects across heterogeneous households and sectors. A smooth phasing out of fossil fuels subsidies contributes to improve macroeconomic performance, to decrease inequality and helps the government to find fiscal space to support stable renewable energy policies. Renewable energy subsidies contribute to foster the low-carbon transition but could imply distributive effects, depending on the way in which they are implemented. |
How the removal of producer subsidies influences oil and gas extraction: A case study in the Gulf of Mexico (2019) 🗎🗎 | Since producer subsides can entail significant economic, fiscal, social and environmental costs, governments have been increasingly interested in removing them. Although many studies have been done on reducing consumer subsidies, subsidies to fossil fuel production are rarely discussed by scholars. This paper seeks to fill this void by developing an economic optimization model for oil and gas extraction to analyze the effects of producer subsidy removal. We forecast field-specific costs for exploration, development and production through constructing functions for the number of wells drilled and producing wells, production and economic limits. Various scenarios of phasing out producer subsidies in U.S. federal and state regulation on optimal production using field data from the Gulf of Mexico are simulated, including removing royalty relief, amortization of geological and geophysical costs, and percentage depletion. The results show that removal of producer subsidies reduces the optimal production rate and investors' net present value and increases government revenue, but the total effect is a cost of net social benefits. Changes in both the discount rate and oil price have positive effects on optimal production, but they exert opposite effects on producer benefits. Our research is helpful for policy-makers to regulate an efficient subsidy removal path. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
The Impact of Energy De-Subsidization Policy in 2030: A Dynamic CGE Model in China (2019) 🗎🗎 | The issues of energy shortage and environmental pollution caused by energy subsidies are more serious in a massive energy-consuming country like China. Since the Group of 20 summit meeting on September 4, 2016, government leaders have confirmed that they will phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. In this paper, we construct a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of different de-subsidization policies based on possible reduction targets, mitigation routes, and reform periods. The results show that a nonlinear tendency in gross domestic product will emerge with the increasing intensity of de-subsidization targets. Moreover, there is a general macroeconomic recession both in output and consumption, where the prices have generally increased. The results also show that various mitigation routes of de-subsidization policy are slightly significant economically. However, the total removal of energy subsidy in one year will obtain an opposite conclusion with better social welfare and gross domestic product, but more carbon emissions and energy consumption. Overall, a medium target (50-90%) with an average reduction during 2010-2030 could be more suitable for China. |
Nuclear Phase-out Under Stringent Climate Policies: A Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis (2017) 🗎🗎 | In this paper we investigate the long-run economic consequences of phasing out nuclear energy in the presence of stringent climate policies. We integrate endogenous growth theory and technology-based activity analysis into a dynamic numerical general equilibrium model. Both market-based and policy-mandated nuclear phase-out are studied. Using data from the Swiss economy we find that the aggregate welfare loss of carbon policy is as large as 1.21% and that nuclear phase-out raises the loss to 1.58%. Nuclear phase-out has no significant effect on economic growth. Increased investment, induced innovation, and sectoral change are the reasons that the economic impact of nuclear phase-out and the trade-off between energy and climate policy are moderate, once the dynamics of an economy are taken into account. Optimal phase-out time for nuclear depends mainly on future cost escalation in the energy sector. |
THE IMPACT OF OIL COMPANY INVESTMENT ON THE WORLD COAL INDUSTRY - OVERCAPACITY AND PRICE DESTABILIZATION 1973-92 (1995) 🗎🗎 | This paper investigates the impact of oil company investments on the world coal industry since the first oil price shack of 1973. It details the scope of these investments, both in the USA and elsewhere, and demonstrates how they have served to destabilize and depress international coal prices. In particular it establishes a novel and robust link between oil company investment in US coal which is sold on the domestic market and the behaviour of US coal export prices. |